Embrace Uncertainty: Jump Right In!

“Take the first step, no more, no less, and the next will be revealed.”

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The short story I opened with is naturally an allegory for how entrepreneurs or executives make decisions under uncertainty.

I often get asked by people I network with “when you started your business, how soon until you got your first client?”

It’s a valid question, but it hides the real story.

Some people have incredible ideas they’re passionate about, but due to their circumstances, doubts, and the ambiguity involved in starting a new business – prefer to do nothing.

I’d preface and say, it’s not that I run a super successful unicorn with offices in 130 countries, mind you 🙂

It’s more about the perception from the outside of anybody who ventured out.

I of course don’t judge. Everybody has their own considerations and priorities.

If you look under the hood, you’ll find that every time we face a big decision with high stakes, insufficient information, where the immediate outcome is unclear – it’s really about the classic three-act story structure.

You have a certain life experience (setting), but now faced with a nagging problem that disrupts your routines (conflict), you think you might have the solution, but can’t be sure it’ll work or worse – if you’re personally up to the challenge (foggy resolution).

Decision making under uncertainty and risk

First off, it makes sense to define what is uncertainty.

Uncertainty refers to scenarios in which this information is barely available. Therefore, uncertain decision making is actually decision making without all the information about the potential risks.

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The busy T intersection

You’ll find this “busy T intersection” when for example your boss tasked you with a big project you have never done before, debating if you should start your own consulting or startup, or learning a new skill?

The truth is, we find it hard to get out of our comfort zones, where all you see is a dense veil of fog. We like clear paths, and autopilot predictability.

Having said that, detailed planning is always a good idea to minimize ambiguity.

But it’s also true that even the best plans when meeting reality often need to change and you find yourself “learning on the go.”

In essence, you’re chopping down a massive challenge into smaller much manageable pieces.

Pretty much like joining a busy highway traffic.

That failure thing

Another important aspect related to the story people tell themselves while facing a big challenge, is the fear of failing.

You don’t have to make a life-changing decision; you could start small with a low-stakes, yet unfamiliar project you’re already planning to do.

Earlier this week, I forced myself to learn how to run a LinkedIn ad campaign with the extra twist of tracking conversions from Eventbrite.

You’d think how complicated that could be. It’s something I did eons ago but platforms evolve.

Sure, I could have a freelancer do it for me.

Personally with all the AI tidal wave that aims to free up our neurons from making any mental effort, these days I try to keep mine working 🙂

So, despite, in my opinion, LI’s poor usability I trudged on. After a series of chats with support reps I was able to finally launch it!

It sure felt good.

Over to you!

So next time you’re faced with a giant challenge ask yourself “What’s the worst that could happen?” How can you chop this monster challenge into small pieces and learn as you go?

If you do all that, typically that’s where your personal growth will come from.

Feel free to share your experiences and perspectives.